Pre-Event Forecasting

Even if as event producers aren't charged with knowing every aspect of an event's financial performance, you can rest assured that when the final invoices come in, someone (be it your boss, or your client) will inquire about the necessity of most spending decisions. To head off such post-game inquiries, I would advise that you develop an operating financial forecast, and present it to key decision makers well in advance of the actual event.

Before you slam your computer shut in disgust, let me clarify that this is not meant as an accounting exercise, nor does it need to be incredibly detailed. Quite the contrary, an operating financial forcast is a simple summary designed to ensure that your spending decisions are defined by you BEFORE the accountants place their spin on things. It will act as documentation of your decisions to date, establish a level of trust with your clients/superiors, and allow any potential issues to be address well before the actual event. It isn't as difficult as it may sound, and is well worth a few hours legwork.

How To Create Your Financial Forecast.

In putting together the financial forecast for your event, you'll need to calculate three figures:

1. Your estimated revenue


2. Your estimated costs


3. An accurate calculation of your potential risk-cost.

Although the necessity of calculating each of these figures may seem obvious, it's remarkable how many experienced event producers fail to perform all three steps for each event (especially #3), or do so inaccurately. I would argue that the reason for this stems from the same reasons we became event producers in the first place – we're action people, not accountants (really, I have nothing against accountants. They're just...different). Our instincts tell us that success is defined by a human connection and flawless execution, not how much money came in (or went out) the door. However, by calculating these figures in advance, you'll have an excellent framework in which to guide your spending decisions, as well as a platform in which to justify any that may be deemed unnecessary.

Step 1 - Calculate Revenue.

Be honest - we all would love for our festival to make us millionaires, or receive hundred of thousand of dollars in donations at our next charity gala. However, most of the time this is simply impossible given the mechanics of our event. Events cost money (usually LOTS of money), and the revenue to offset those costs are comparatively limited. A person can only eat so much food, or drink so much beer, or buy so many commemorative t-shirts before their wallet or their body gives out (believe me, I've tried). Given that, how do we establish this figure for something that hasn't happened yet?

The most accurate way to estimate revenue is to establish the per-capita revenue for each guest (the “per-cap”). This figure is simply the amount of money generated at the event, averaged out across each attendant. To estimate this figure BEFORE the event requires some research. If you have revenue figures from a similar production, you can simply create or utilize the per-cap for that particular event, and use that figure to calculate your estimate using your anticipated attendance. To get a more accurate figure, however, you may want to piece-meal your estimate together using information derived from outside sources. For example, if you're putting on a festival featuring “The Bleeding Eardrums”, but only have past revenue information from last year's event featuring “Cuddles Johnson and the Soft Pillows”, your merchandise is unlikely to be the same (since some bands are more merch-centric than others). If you reach out to a producer in your professional network that has worked with “The Bleeding Eardrums”, they may be willing to give you the merchandise revenue for their event. You can then simply add this figure to your per-cap calculations for your remaining revenue areas (adjusted for attendance, of course). Similarly, you may want to do this with your alcohol sales (depending on demographics and weather), food sales (event times and length), and parking fees (age of the demographic and location of event).

Once you establish the figures, calculating the per-cap is a matter of simple mathematics. For example :

Now that you've established a reasonable per-cap estimate based on your control figures, you can estimate your revenue using your attendance estimates.

$21.69 x (Your attendance estimate i.e. 2365 guests) = $51,296.85 anticipated revenue

Simple stuff so far. Now that we've established the fun stuff, let's take a look at the downside – costs.

Step 2 - Calculate Costs

Not surprisingly, figuring your costs is substantially easier than your revenue, simply because so much of it is contract-based as opposed to attendance-based. You're given a quote for a service, and pending any sort of changes, you know more or less what you can expect to pay ahead of time. However, this is a fantastic opportunity to re-examine all contracts, with an eye towards uncovering any hidden clauses that may increase your total expenditure (minimums, service fees, etc). Also, verify if any taxes are included in your quote. If not, factor them in based upon your area's rates.

When it comes to labor expenses, things are similarly straight-forward. Using your best estimate on event time, calculate your labor expenses based on your staffing plan. An important point – make sure you're including payroll tax (if applicable) into your calculation, along with any up-charge you may be passing on to your client. Typically called the re-charge rate, this will be the amount that your client will be billed for, so make sure its used for all calculations. When I used internal staff for contract projects, I'd typically added 25% to my internal rate to cover payroll taxes and costs – you can set yours based on how much you like your client. Also, make sure you're including any pre/post event time that may be needed, such as briefing, cleaning, and check-out.

Finally, make sure that your including EVERYTHING in your expenses. No matter how trivial they may seem, they will add up, and affect your bottom line. These can include meals, hospitality, office supplies, phones, fuel...you get the idea...

Add it all up, and you have your cost estimate established.

Step 3 - Calculate Risk

Of the three calculations, quantifying risk is the most difficult to do, and is therefore usually disregarded when forecasting. The debate generally centers around whether risk costs should be included, as they're rarely incurred (thankfully). The thought is that their inclusion will give a lower impression of forecasted profit, potentially impacting critical late-term spending decisions. However, I would argue that if calculated methodically and communicated openly, the impact of including these costs on your forecast will be minimal and generally appreciated by your client/superior..

To figure out the potential risk costs, one must first identify what these potential risks are. This requires conducting a risk-assessment of for your event. The subject of risk assessment is a topic in and of itself, so I'll be dealing in generalities for now. In a nutshell, a risk assessment is simply a brainstorm to determine every possible complication you may encounter during your event, and applying a dollar amount to it. For example, if the generator powering your stage fails, how much would it cost for you to secure a replacement? If you're forced to postpone your event due to weather, how many deposits could you expect to lose? Or if you needed to add security staff due to a last-minute artist request, how much of a premium would you pay? These would be examples of potential risk-costs.

As you can see, if you included each one of these possibilities as an individual cost, you'd quickly eat up every cent of your revenue. Likewise, doing so would make little sense, as the chances of EVERYTHING going wrong at once are (hopefully) slim. That said, the method I have generally used is as follows:

• Of the potential risks, discard every cost you can verify would be covered by insurance. This includes most accidents and Act-of-God occurrences.


• Discard any costs that have a contractual remedy. This usually includes most contract-based services, wherein you'd simply re-schedule such services for a later date. If an artist is forced to postpone, they will generally incur most associated costs. However, If the event is canceled altogether and there's a deposit involved, continue to include these costs.


• Discard anything that seems completely outlandish or otherwise EXTREMELY unlikely. Sure, it's POSSIBLE that there could be an invasion by Canada during your event...but if there is, you have more to worry about than dollars. Such as figuring out the current exchange rate.


• Finally, look at the figures that remain. Of those, select the figure that has the HIGHEST risk-cost associated with it. Using this figure, determine the percentage of your total revenue (after cost) this represents. For example, a $3000 risk charge against a $12,000 after-cost profit = 25%.


• At this stage, you have two options. Either subtract this amount off of your forecast straight away as a risk-cost, or add it as a byline to your traditional revenue-cost projections as a “worst-case” scenario.

Step 4 -Putting it all together.

You now have everything you need to create your event forecast. Now it's time to put it together in a form that best communicates your estimates to the client while not triggering an intense audit. The format doesn't need to be complicated – a simple word document or excel spreadsheet should suffice. Depending on your operating environment an email may acceptable, although I would still present the client with a “clean” copy for their records.

For guidance, I suggest you include the following information:

1. Event Name


2. Event Date


3. Event Time


4. Event Location


5. Event Summary – A brief rundown of the event type, purpose of the event, historical precedent if available.


6. Estimated Revenues (Provide figure and a short summary as to how the figure was compiled)


7. Estimated Costs (Provide figure and a short summary as to how the figure was compiled )


8. Estimated Risk-cost – I would provide this as percentage as opposed to a dollar figure. Summarize potential risks you have identified and provide the percentage of potential risk. They client choose to do the math internally and knock the dollar figure off their profit estimates in advance, or they may disregard them all together. Either way, allow them to make that decision and do the legwork involved. If you provide a dollar figure for them, you can guarantee that amount will be subtracted in advance, and will result in greater scrutiny of your late-game financial expenditures.


9. Assumptions and qualifications – This is important, and constitutes a simple paragraph that states that all figures are based upon current conditions and do not constitute a guarantee of any sort.

As mentioned at the beginning of this post, the purpose of creating an operating financial forecast is not to replace the “formal” budget forecast. Rather, by giving an accurate estimate of how your event's finances are shaping up, it demonstrates your attention to not only the event's operational performance, but it's financial performance as well. As long as you've been mindful of your costs to date, your client will be appreciative. Perhaps your accountant will, too.